1989 Tayana Vancouver 42 "NOCTILUCA", Ventura, CA 93001

$5,500

The inspection itself is close to mandatory before an ocean passage on a 37-year-old Tayana, given that Cruising World names chainplate corrosion as this model's known weakness. The 20% discount is the chance that the 2026 rigger already pulled and inspected the plates and can produce photographs or an invoice saying so, in which case this reduces to a surveyor confirming rather than a yard dismantling. That is the single cheapest phone call in the transaction and it is why this is a probability rather than a certainty.

$2,200

You would commission this on any boat you intended to sail to Australia, regardless of what the listing claimed, so it is near-certain. The residual 10% is the case where the 2026 rigger is a known local loft who supplies a full written specification and a recent mast-climb report, which would make a second independent survey redundant rather than merely reassuring.

$2,400

Reduced because of an overlap I did not flag first time: a competent rig survey, already priced on the line above, will look at the step, the partners and the diamond stay terminals as a matter of course. What this line adds is the invasive part - getting at a compression post behind joinery, or a keel-stepped heel in the bilge - and that is only needed if the rig survey finds something or if nobody can say which way the mast is stepped. Both are live, hence 0.70 rather than lower.

$5,500

Reduced from certainty for a specific reason I originally missed: a rigger who has the mast down or the wire off in 2026 is standing right next to the halyards, and replacing them at that moment costs a fraction of doing it later. So there is a real chance the 2026 job included running rigging even though the bullet point says 'Standing Rigging'. The furler is the part that keeps the probability high - nothing suggests it has been touched, and a 37-year-old furler is the item on this boat most likely to fail somewhere useless.

$16,000

THE BIGGEST CORRECTION IN THIS REVISION - it was previously carried as a certainty and it is nothing of the kind. My original reasoning was 'no dates are given, therefore assume worn out', which is exactly the over-assumption to avoid. Read the owner's revealed behaviour instead: somebody paid for standing rigging in 2026, bottom paint in 2026, lithium and solar in 2024 and a plotter and AIS in 2024. That is a serious owner spending on invisible, unglamorous items - and an owner who re-rigs a boat almost always has the sails looked at while the mast is down. Two further tells point the same way: the main is described as 'battened', not in-mast furling, which is a deliberate offshore choice, and a trisail is aboard, which nobody buys by accident. Against that, no dates exist, the boat is 37 years old, and the same owner demonstrably left the radar needing service and the liferaft possibly out of certification - so the spending is selective, not comprehensive. A coin flip is the honest number, and one question to the broker collapses it either way.

$6,500

A 37-year-old diesel about to cross an ocean gets a service; the question is only how big. The 15% discount covers the possibility that the same owner who re-rigged in 2026 also had the engine done and simply did not put it in the four-line highlight list - which is plausible, because those four lines are marketing highlights rather than a maintenance record. Note that the listing's silence cuts both ways here and I originally read it only one way. Against that, the radar was left 'requires service', which tells you this owner does defer mechanical work.

$3,500

Cutless bearings and stuffing boxes are consumables measured in years, and the boat will be hauled anyway, so the marginal cost of doing them is low and the case for doing them is strong. The 20% discount covers the chance that the 2026 haulout that produced new bottom paint also produced a new cutless bearing, which is the single most common thing to do while a boat is already out of the water.

$6,500

One of the higher-confidence lines in the file, and the confidence comes from a specific absence rather than from age alone: no fuel filtration of any kind is mentioned anywhere in three listing mirrors - not even a Racor, which almost every cruising boat has and almost every listing mentions. Combined with two original black-iron tanks that Cruising World names as a model weakness, opening and proving the fuel system before an ocean passage is close to unavoidable. The 15% discount is the chance that a tank has already been replaced and a polishing system fitted without being listed.

$8,500

The audit is near-certain: a lithium bank retrofitted onto a 1989 DC system with no named installer is something you have checked before you leave, full stop. What is genuinely uncertain is the remediation, which is why the band runs from $3.5k to $18k rather than sitting on a point. The 15% discount is the case where the 2024 work was done by a yard that hands over a wiring diagram, a Class-T fuse and a documented BMS configuration - in which case an hour of a surveyor's time closes it.

$3,200

Cable, sheaves and rudder bearing on a 37-year-old pedestal are consumables and the emergency tiller is unevidenced, so some work here is likely. The 25% discount reflects that steering is one of the few systems an owner cannot ignore - it announces itself long before it fails - so a boat that has been actively sailed, as this one's 2,544 engine hours and full canvas inventory suggest, has probably had the cable replaced at least once.

$4,500

Near-certain on timing rather than on condition: 2026 antifoul will be roughly two years old at a March 2028 departure, heading into a year of warm-water growth and then an Australian biosecurity inspection, so it gets done again before leaving whatever state it is in. The estimate has been REDUCED in this revision - the original figure assumed more prep than a two-year-old bottom needs, and the barrier-coat scenario is already carried separately as the blistering risk, so pricing it here as well was double counting.

$4,000

RECLASSIFIED IN THIS REVISION from required_offshore to recommended, which was an over-assumption of a different kind: the delivery is required to execute one particular plan, not required to make the boat seaworthy, and the brief is explicit that the required list is what the price ceiling is computed from and should be strict. The 0.75 reflects that refitting in Southern California is a real alternative that deletes this line entirely - at the cost of changing the labour basis away from the Bay Area rates this file uses throughout, and of running the refit 300 miles from home.

$13,000

Near-certain rather than certain, and the residual 15% is real. Some re-bedding is inevitable on any 37-year-old deck - fastener penetrations weep long before a deck is 'wet'. What is NOT certain is the teak element of this scope: no listing mirror confirms teak decks at all, and KI, twelve years newer, turned out to have molded non-skid. If the four photographs come back showing molded non-skid, roughly a third of this line's likely value disappears with it. NOTE THE OVERLAP: if the teak-removal risk fires, most of this work is subsumed into it and is not spent twice - the risk band below has been reduced accordingly.

$7,000

Reduced from an implicit certainty. My original reasoning was 'the listing does not mention seacocks, therefore they are original 1989 bronze', which does not follow - a boat can go through 37 years and two or three owners with fittings replaced at some haulout nobody wrote down, and this boat has been hauled as recently as 2026. Seacocks are also the classic deferred item, so the probability stays high rather than middling. The honest position is that full replacement is likely but not assured, and that a surveyor's report will convert this from a guess to a count in an afternoon.

$4,000

Two elements at different confidence. Renewing 37-year-old potable and sanitation hose is near-certain and cheap. Recommissioning the watermaker is entirely contingent on a unit whose make, model, age and condition are all unstated - the closest comparable listing recorded its own watermaker's condition as 'unknown'. The blended figure is 0.80. Note the asymmetry: if the watermaker turns out to be dead rather than tired, this line gets SMALLER and the catalogue watermaker line comes back at full value instead, so the error here is self-correcting.

$2,000

The most speculative line in the file and now priced as such. The entire evidence is the word 'Oven'. A 1989 Taiwanese boat may have a fully compliant propane installation with a vented locker and a solenoid already - many do, because it is a common early upgrade and because insurers ask - or it may have an alcohol stove, or a propane run nobody has looked at since the Clinton administration. Roughly even odds that something here needs money, which is why this dropped from a certainty to a coin flip plus a little.

$3,500

Recommended rather than required, and genuinely uncertain. A bimini, spray hood, mainsail cover and lazy jacks are all present, which on a 37-year-old boat means somebody has replaced canvas at some point - original 1989 Sunbrella would have disintegrated two decades ago. So the real question is whether the existing set is five years old or fifteen, and a photograph answers it. Priced at 0.65 to reflect that some of it will need attention before a tropical year without assuming all of it does.

$7,500

Hatches are the archetypal deferred item and 37 years of Southern California UV is a long time, so the probability is high. The 25% discount covers two cases the original write-up ignored: hatches may have been re-bedded at some point in four decades without appearing in a broker's highlight list, and some Tayanas of this era carry bronze opening ports rather than aluminium-framed hatches, which age very differently and are rebuildable rather than replaceable.